Forecasting 2023 NFL playoffs and standings

Chalk is one of 48 games' infinite variants, so we'll focus on it today. We want a specific chalk, the most common conference result.

The NFC playoff field is 5% likely to be as shown below, and the AFC field is 1% likely.

We chose one of the two simulations where both conferences reached their modal outcome to show how the season could go.

Dallas was eliminated early by the Bucs in the largest wild-card round upset. 

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The Ravens defeated the Bills while the 49ers defeated the Bucs in the divisional round

Baltimore's streak ended in the AFC Championship Game, when the Chiefs won 39-26. The 49ers won the NFC title 20-17 over the Lions.

The Chiefs defeated the 49ers 37-21 in the Super Bowl to repeat as champions.

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